Tully Tuesday's Volume 28. We made it to football.

Author

Tim Tully
September 03, 2024

Welcome back to Tully Tuesday’s today is the Tuesday the world has waited for, as we are only 2 days away from the greatest part of the calendar. Perfect September weather in Massachusetts, and perfect golf conditions. But of course, the NFL, the gold standard in American entertainment has arrived.

I’m going to try and format the newsletter a little better for fall, and we will start off by recapping the picks from the prior week. Here’s what our college vibes only picks led to:

College Recap

North Carolina -2 vs Minnesota. Carolina brings in new QB Max Johnson and should have success spreading the ball out against Minnesota.

Ohio State Akron over 57. Ohio State is favored by 50 points, and that is enough for me to take the over. It gives the insurance for the defensive or kickoff touchdown Akron could luck into, and Ohio State has a lot of new toys on offense, from Will Howard at QB, Quinshon Judkins of Playstation fame at RB, and Jeremiah Smith at WR, who could be a top 5 receiver in America as a Freshman. This is the kind of game where Ryan Day has no qualms about running up the score, and with Devin Brown still trying to prove himself at QB2, there shouldn’t be a slow down in the second half when the starters take a seat.

USC LSU over 64.5. Could be a dud. Both teams have new defensive Coordinators trying to right the wrongs of the past here. I am high on USC this season and think Miller Moss has Heisman sleeper potential all over him. This is strictly a, only game on, bet the over vibes pick so take that for what it’s worth.

Dog of the week. BC ML +500. Some men just want to see the world burn. FSU will probably avenge their sins from last week and pound BC, but if the Eagles and their new look offense can settle in, they might be able to shake the Seminole crowd and sneak away with one.

UNC Minnesota- Winner. This was a fun game, and UNC looked dead to rights when Max Johnson went down. I love the UNC running back. He’s an absolute tank, but shoutout to their kicker Noah Burnette. He hit some bombs and multiple kicks to take the lead, including one that was unable to be matched by Minnesota giving us the win.

OSU Akron- Winner This was a sweat and the closing line made the difference. The Line dropped to 57 pregame and the final score of 52-6 propelled by a late OSU defensive TD made all the difference. Hopefully you got it at 57 and not 59 where it opened.

LSU-USC - Loser. Fun game, but it was pretty obvious early we weren’t getting this over. The only hope was overtime, but I was on USC so more than happy to take the loss here.

DOG OF THE WEEK. BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES. BC followed the script, pounded the ball, and silenced the crowd in Tallahassee. I was frustrated with the broadcast as they refused to acknowledge how BC was applying pressure and forcing DJ to beat them, which he simply could not. What a fun game and good on BC for getting off to the right start. Castellanos is a stud and they should have a good chance to win a lot of football games this year.

So, a pretty good first week going ¾ with a huge hit on the Eagles.

College Record

2-1

Dog of the Week: 1-0

Week 2 College picks for the vibes

Texas -7 @ Michigan

Don’t overthink this. Don’t look at the rankings. Don’t even worry where my feelings on the disgusting

Kansas State -9.5 over Tulane

Tulane is better than most group of 5 teams, but I’m really high on the Wildcats.

Ole Miss -41.5 over Middle Tennessee. I’m in love with the Ole Miss offense and uniforms. They covered 34 in the first half last week. Should be more of the same this week.

Dog of the Week Syracuse over Georgia Tech +130

Not exactly a huge upset but we love a home dog and particuarly one coming off an impressive win. Kyle McCord has found a nice home and should be able to move the ball against Georgia Tech who had a week off after playing in Ireland.

NFL Week 1

We are going to provide some data driven picks after a couple weeks of games, probably starting around week 4. Right now there’s not enough data to accurately predict what’s going on. So the first month I’ll preview a few games I’m excited to watch and share some leans.

I will say first I have placed a future on the Dallas Cowboys to win the Super Bowl at +1900. That is serious juice in a relatively weak NFC. The Cowboys will be in the playoffs, and the odds will be +600 or so when that time comes. I took our UNC and OSU Winnings and queued myself up for max disappointment.

The Games I’m excited for this week

Eagles (-3) vs Packers, Friday Night in Brazil.

This is a win-win and a lose-lose for me. I hate both these teams. I’ll be rooting for the Packers because the Eagles losing is always the most beneficial thing for the Cowboys, and I’m interested to see their new secondary against the Packers passing attack. Josh Jacobs is the lone man in the Running Back room and should see a lot of action. I’m taking him Anytime scorer at +120 as my pick for the game.

Texans -2.5 vs Colts

There’s a lot of hype on these two teams, I think both could be pretty solid this year, I’m excited to see the Texans with CJ Stroud and Stefon Diggs. I think they have too much talent to lose to the Colts this early in the year. Give me Texans -2.5.

LV @ LAC (-3)

I think the Raiders are sneaky going to be one of the worst teams in the league. I’m not a Gardiner Minshew guy and losing Josh Jacobs is going to be a problem for them. They have quality backs in Alex Mattison and Zamir White but -3 for Harbaugh in his first game? Come on. LAC -3.

Cowboys @ Browns (-2.5)

I feel too confident in the Cowboys, and understand there’s probably a correction coming in due time. Mike McCarthy won his Super Bowl in year 5 with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, and if the Cowboys are going to do it this century, his 5th year in Dallas is as good a shot as they’re going to have.

The Browns enter the game without Nick Chubb, and reports from their camp are less than enthused about Deshaun Watson coming off his injury. I went to this Matchup in 2016 and the crowd was overwhelmingly a Dallas crowd. I think this week will be similar, and if Cowboys rookie OT Tyler Guyton can keep Myles Garrett from wrecking the Cowboys offense I think this game is a true toss up, and I’m going with Dak Prescott (noted good human) over Deshaun Watson in this one.

Jets @ 49ers (-4.5)

This is a line to get now. There’s a chance Trent Williams isn’t ready to go Monday and that will swing this line a bit. The 49ers are the best team in the NFC and they will find a groove, but I think there is value here with Aaron Rodgers returning and attacking a 49ers defense that is without Dre Greenlaw and doesn’t exactly have a lockdown corner they can throw on Garrett Wilson. The Jets are as healthy as they can be, with Tyron Smith, Aaron Rodgers, and Breece Hall all ready to play this week, and that won’t be an advantage they will have for long based on history.

Thank you for reading and thank you for checking out our sponsors every week. This is a lot of fun for me and I love hearing feedback from readers. Have a great week and go win some money for the boys.

Til next week TT

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