Tully Tuesday's Volume 27. The Totals and Week 1 College Picks

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No more nothing Saturdays Until the end of January. No more weekends without football until the Super Bowl. This is living folks, and this is how it’s supposed to be done. CeeDee Lamb is a career Cowboy. All is well over here.

I promised some win totals this week. We ran the numbers are there are a few teams I’d like to share and do some explaining outside of the numbers for you. All lines provided are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

In order of mathematical confidence:

Bills over 9.5 Wins (-135)

Our model projects Buffalo at 10.6 wins, which would round up to 11. A couple of factors are involved in the models that could effect this. First off the Bills have been the best team in the AFC East for a handful of years now. They have the advantage in their series with Miami who looks to be the opposing favorite in the Division and the reliance on Aaron Rodgers staying healthy for the Jets to challenge the Bills gives me some comfort in this pick.

Houston Texans over 9.5 wins (-140)

This has everything to do with the AFC South. The Texans could very well run the table in the South, the Titans don’t have the Vrabel pull a win out of your ass trick anymore, the Colts are a little overhyped in my opinion, given the lack of experience at QB despite Richardson playing well early last season, his most effective weapon was his legs, and that’s how he got hurt. The Texans added talent to both sides of the ball and have one of the best young coaches in the NFL, I don’t see the second year slump coming for that regime.

Detroit Lions under 10.5 wins (+110)

The Lions will be close to this number. We have the projection at 10.4, so it’s a true toss up, that’s why we’ll take the plus money here. Green Bay and Chicago should both be better teams than last year and it will be a challenge for the Lions to get off to a hot start after last season, they are big time wave riders in the Dan Campbell era, and will have to stay Healthy on the O line to be the team they were last year, which is a tall task two years in a row.

Cowboys over 10.5 Wins (+150)

Our model was not designed by me, so there is no bias in it loving the Cowboys. We have the projection over 10 which caused me to turn the dial and get 10.5 at Plus money. The Cowboys despite their playoff failures have won 12 games in the last 3 years, in fact exactly 12. Their achievement of that number depends on the Health of Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons, and the improved O-line with two stud rookies should allow Dallas to run the ball more particularly late in the season. If Dallas is able to add a running back in the back half of the roster build in the next few days, I think the juice on this number will fade.

Saints Under 7.5 (+100)

The Saints are going to bench Derek Carr for Spencer Rattler at some point this season. The NFC South has two decent teams, and neither play their home games in Louisiana. I am bullish on Atlanta, and I think Tampa will be the 8 or 9 win team they look to be. I just don’t see the Saints making it out of Columbus Day weekend with more than 2 wins. They play Carolina, Dallas, Philly, Atlanta, Kansas City and Tampa off the rip, they will likely only be favored in the opener. They will then play an improved Denver team with Sean Payton coaching in New Orleans on SNF, the Chargers, the Panthers again (W), Falcons, Browns, Rams after that. That is a gauntlet. Not to mention Finishing the season against Green Bay on MNF, Vegas (probably a win) and a season close out at Tampa. I dont see 8 wins on that sheet, neither does the model.

Arizona Cardinals over 6.5 (-150)

My Last pick is basically the opposite of the Saints take. I think Kyler Murray is still a solid quarterback and I’m a fan of Jonathan Gannon. The Cardinals beat some solid teams down the stretch last season and improved at Receiver as well as by proxy at QB with Murray coming back. Their schedule starts off tough, but ends with Bears, Jets, @Seahawks, @Minnesota, Seahawks, Patriots, Panthers, Rams and 49ers who likely will have already clinched. That’s a strech that will include 4 or 5 wins. Can they find 2 more early in the season? They play the Commanders at home, the Chargers at home, and the Rams at home early in the year. Can they get two of those? I think 7 wins is well within reach if Kyler Murray and Harrison can form a connection early in the year.

I’m going to drop a couple college picks every week as well and track my success or failure. These have no data, just vibes.

North Carolina -2 vs Minnesota. Carolina brings in new QB Max Johnson and should have success spreading the ball out against Minnesota.

Ohio State Akron over 59.5. Ohio State is favored by 50 points, and that is enough for me to take the over. It gives the insurance for the defensive or kickoff touchdown Akron could luck into, and Ohio State has a lot of new toys on offense, from Will Howard at QB, Quinshon Judkins of Playstation fame at RB, and Jeremiah Smith at WR, who could be a top 5 receiver in America as a Freshman. This is the kind of game where Ryan Day has no qualms about running up the score, and with Devin Brown still trying to prove himself at QB2, there shouldn’t be a slow down in the second half when the starters take a seat.

USC LSU over 64.5. Could be a dud. Both teams have new defensive Coordinators trying to right the wrongs of the past here. I am high on USC this season and think Miller Moss has Heisman sleeper potential all over him. This is strictly a, only game on, bet the over vibes pick so take that for what it’s worth.

Dog of the week. BC ML +500. Some men just want to see the world burn. FSU will probably avenge their sins from last week and pound BC, but if the Eagles and their new look offense can settle in, they might be able to shake the Seminole crowd and sneak away with one.