Tully Tuesday's Azalea Edition

Welcome to AugustaLytics

Welcome back for another week here on Tully Tuesday’s. This is a special one as its time for the best Golf Tournament of the year and it’s also the kickoff of the spring/summer. Yesterday was the first day of nice weather in 2024 up here in Boston. I walked out the door for lunch and gasped at how nice it was outside. Completely changed the trajectory of my day, until the eclipse ruined the vibes.

It was cool, but we lost 2 hours of warmth that I was really looking forward to. Whatever.

This week I am introducing you to our new tool, LockedIN. LockedIN was born out of RoadMap’s time series forecasting system and my colleague Dom has made it into a Gambling Modeling machine for folks like you and I to enjoy. We’ve created a few models, mostly focusing on Hockey so far, where we are hitting at a 62.5% clip for Goalie saves on model picks.

I’m a big fan of betting golf 3 balls and matchups, and we have you set up for Day 1 after running our systems on LockedIN.

I took past Masters data weighted with World Ranking to project out the Round 1 scores for each of the returning competitors with at least 3 starts at Augusta. Thanks to Data Golf, this was a much easier task to pull the data sets but it did test my Excel skills back and I think the boy still has the touch.

Here we have the layover charts between 1st round scoring and stokes gained in those rounds. Strokes Gained is a good indicator but not something we can bet on so, not something we are going to forecast for this exercise.

After importing my Data set, the colors represent different years of the masters, and we used standard dates for the time series to push the projections, you’ll see that we were able to land on some solid numbers for a lot of the competitors you’ll be watching this week. With a touch of a button, we were able to use the past history and strokes gained to get a day one leader board that looks like below.

Now disclaimer, a lot can happen in a round of Golf. Someone can call in a rules violation and mess up your whole tournament in an instant, you can get a bad bounce etc. etc. What we are trying to do here is identify value against the books and where they may be off with a few of these guys that we can dig in on.

The lines are not available for Round 1 yet matchups yet, I’ll post an update once the lines are live.

For day one leader looking at the board there should be some value on a couple guys I like for Day 1. Lowry +4000, Finau +3500, and Fowler +7000.

Rahm +2000 and Scottie +1200 should have good days as the top dogs, but there should be some lottery ticket value on those 3 to go low on Day 1.

Outside of the Data I do have some personal plays as well.

I’m sitting on a Spieth +2500 ticket to win

Spieth Top Former winner +650

Koepka Top 5 +330

Koepka Top LIV Finisher +600

Scheffler winner +450

Rahm Tournament Matchup over Xander -120

Tiger Top 20 +230

Ludvig Top Debutant +275

Phil Top Senior -140 vs Singh, Weir, Couples ,JMO

If you’d like to try your hand with LockedIN please let me know, we can get you a look at the software and create some models for whatever games you like to bet, or you can build yourself a little weather forecast to plan out your rounds.

Hit em straight and enjoy some cold ones. Should be a great weekend.