Tully Tuesday's Volume 45! Playoffs you kidding me !

Author

Tim Tully
January 07, 2025

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I feel like I’ve said this too many times but maybe the best week of Football of the year is upon us. This year is even better with the two added College Football Playoff games.

Yes, I am going to mention that I did in fact nail my CFP picks last week and I hope you got in on the OSU future. I got +550 after the Michigan game and it was still juicy prior to the Shellacking that Ryan Day and the Buckeyes put on Oregon, Ohio State’s biggest rival in the Rose Bowl.

I got smoked in the NFL so you’re welcome for not posting picks.

Nobody wants to read my thoughts on the Cowboys ClusterFest that was 2024. I think unless they can get Mike Vrabel or Ben Johnson, the Cowboys will and should stick with Mike McCarthy. Jerry Jones is the problem and isn’t going anywhere so there is no reason to get excited about any possible outcome over the next week. The fact that they have not made a decision is either performative or completely ignorant and I’m not sure it’s not both.

Mike Vrabel to the Patriots is the no-brainer that it looks like and he will mold a very scrappy team in New England, they won’t be the world beaters of before but that’s what the Celtics are for right now.

The Giants are a joke and it’s a shame

I have some thoughts on the NFL Playoffs, but first want to go over our team totals from the beginning of the season.

Reviewing our season win total picks

Houston Texans over 9.5 wins (-140) Win

This has everything to do with the AFC South. The Texans could very well run the table in the South, the Titans don’t have the Vrabel pull a win out of your ass trick anymore, the Colts are a little overhyped in my opinion, given the lack of experience at QB despite Richardson playing well early last season, his most effective weapon was his legs, and that’s how he got hurt. The Texans added talent to both sides of the ball and have one of the best young coaches in the NFL, I don’t see the second year slump coming for that regime.

Nailed it. They Texans don’t look as good as last year but that division was trash so the pick wins.

Detroit Lions under 10.5 wins (+110) loss

The Lions will be close to this number. We have the projection at 10.4, so it’s a true toss up, that’s why we’ll take the plus money here. Green Bay and Chicago should both be better teams than last year and it will be a challenge for the Lions to get off to a hot start after last season, they are big time wave riders in the Dan Campbell era, and will have to stay Healthy on the O line to be the team they were last year, which is a tall task two years in a row.

The road the wave. This team could and probably should win the Super Bowl. As long as they knock off the Eagles I’m okay with this.

Cowboys over 10.5 Wins (+150) loss

Our model was not designed by me, so there is no bias in it loving the Cowboys. We have the projection over 10 which caused me to turn the dial and get 10.5 at Plus money. The Cowboys despite their playoff failures have won 12 games in the last 3 years, in fact exactly 12. Their achievement of that number depends on the Health of Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons, and the improved O-line with two stud rookies should allow Dallas to run the ball more particularly late in the season. If Dallas is able to add a running back in the back half of the roster build in the next few days, I think the juice on this number will fade.

The health of Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons was in fact the downfall of the season, I was betting on them staying healthy. The rest of the team kind of sucked. The “Stud rookies” turned out to be optimistic although Cooper Beebe at Center was really good. Guyton at Tackle was not.

Saints Under 7.5 (+100) Win

The Saints are going to bench Derek Carr for Spencer Rattler at some point this season. The NFC South has two decent teams, and neither play their home games in Louisiana. I am bullish on Atlanta, and I think Tampa will be the 8 or 9 win team they look to be. I just don’t see the Saints making it out of Columbus Day weekend with more than 2 wins. They play Carolina, Dallas, Philly, Atlanta, Kansas City and Tampa off the rip, they will likely only be favored in the opener. They will then play an improved Denver team with Sean Payton coaching in New Orleans on SNF, the Chargers, the Panthers again (W), Falcons, Browns, Rams after that. That is a gauntlet. Not to mention Finishing the season against Green Bay on MNF, Vegas (probably a win) and a season close out at Tampa. I dont see 8 wins on that sheet, neither does the model.

I was worried about this one early but the Saints just were so bad. Derek Carr getting hurt was a problem, but they were just not a good team.

Arizona Cardinals over 6.5 (-150) Win

My Last pick is basically the opposite of the Saints take. I think Kyler Murray is still a solid quarterback and I’m a fan of Jonathan Gannon. The Cardinals beat some solid teams down the stretch last season and improved at Receiver as well as by proxy at QB with Murray coming back. Their schedule starts off tough, but ends with Bears, Jets, @Seahawks, @Minnesota, Seahawks, Patriots, Panthers, Rams and 49ers who likely will have already clinched. That’s a strech that will include 4 or 5 wins. Can they find 2 more early in the season? They play the Commanders at home, the Chargers at home, and the Rams at home early in the year. Can they get two of those? I think 7 wins is well within reach if Kyler Murray and Harrison can form a connection early in the year.

This team looked really solid at the beginning of the year and benefitted from San Francisco being banged up and having to rely solely on Brock Purdy. good win.

We will do picks on Thursday but some quick thoughts on this weekend’s football.

College

OSU is going to roll Texas. Texas has been able to get out to early leads and hang on for dear life all year. OSU is Georgia with more talent on offense, and maybe a better defense. Texas had no answer for Georgia in either game this season. The line will move up before kick, and there are rumors of a Saturday kickoff due to the snow in Dallas expected. I think OSU has unlocked their offense and their defense has been ridiculously good this year, particularly after the first Oregon game.

Penn State ND is a toss up to me. It feels like a Ravens Bills playoff game. The two teams have their styles and both look really good, but the Chiefs are on the other side of the bracket. Power Ranking the playoffs I’d have

OSU

Texas

Penn State-ND

I think they are solid teams who can win if they control the ball, either team will be a fitting National Runner up.

NFL Playoffs

Chargers-Texans

This should be a gross game. The Classic ugly early wild card game. The team who scores first will lose by 10+.

Ravens-Steelers

This game on paper should be a blowout for the Ravens, but there’s just something about the Steelers man. They play the ugliest most unwatchable football. The Ravens at their best play some of the best. I like Derrick Henry scoring a pair in this game.

Bills Broncos

Could be awesome, could be a blowout. I took the over at 47, the Broncos should be in F-it mode and emptying the kitchen sink in this game. I hope they do, that’s vintage Sean Payton. Who has done an outstanding job this year. The Bills have to be feeling some pressure after coming up short the last few years and knowing the Ravens and Chiefs are their likely next two opponents.

Packers-Eagles

I wish the Eagles were a mess like the Cowboys and could get throttled here. They just win games man. I think they handle the Packers easy but I pray I’m wrong, there’s no fallout like Eagles losing in the playoffs fallout.

Bucs Commanders

Two teams that you assume are pretty good but when you watch you’re just like I don’t get it. Both teams lost to Cooper Rush and the Cowboys. This could go a myriad of ways but I can see the Commanders rallying before getting smoked by Philly next week.

Vikings-Rams

The Vikings have been riding high all year but might be in trouble against a well rested Rams team. They played a great Thursday Nighter a few weeks ago and I hope this game can live up to that one. What a blow it would be for the Vikings to drop this game. They should fire Kevin O’Connell and make him go to Dallas if they lose.

See you thursday for picks! Please click the link at the top of the article, it helps a ton.

Til next week

TT