Thursday Picks Week 8 NFL and College Football

Author

Tim Tully
October 24, 2024

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We were 2-2 on the official ledger, which once again proves the machine wins over the man.

Up to 7-6 on the season

Houston Green Bay Under 47.5

Pretty smooth winner here, looked dead to rights with 33 points in the first half, but great defense in 2nd half got it home.

Green Bay Moneyline over Houston

Houston covered, so this was a good win even with the juice.

Giants +3 vs Philadelphia

Giants, banned list. Should’ve taken the under

Atlanta -3 vs Seattle

Never had a chance.

The Prediction panel continued to absolutely ball out.

11-4 on Moneyline, 7-8 on spread, 11-4 on Totals. Heater for Geneva.

That puts our totals for the year since Week 5 as follows

28-13 on ML

18-23 on Spreads

28-12-2 on Totals

Now Moneylines are easier to predict, and we aren’t accounting for the juice, but the totals is pretty exciting considering the challenge involved in making those picks.

For Week 8 here’s what we got going

Make your own models and projections @ LabofData.com

Not a ton of upset potential, GENEVA loves the favorites this week. Instead of going by the public money this week I’m changing my lane to try and break free of the mediocrity my current picks have had.

I’m going to live and die by GENEVA This week and I’m going to do it by finding our best total picks of the week.

Lions Titans over 44. 

Geneva has this finishing 8 points higher than the total of 44. The Lions are the hottest team in the NFL, the Titans have zero identity on either side of the ball and are good to give up one on offense just as well as they are to score against the Lions, who do not have great corners.

Dolphins Cardinals under 46.5

This just feels like a game where you’re expecting a shootout but you have to remember the Dolphins did not look like the Dolphins even with Tua earlier in the season. They scored 20 and 10 points in the games Tua played in. Arizona’s defense held Herbert and the Chargers to Zero Touchdowns last week.

Cardinals +3

I like the Cardinals to cover the 3 for the same reason. The Dolphins have issues outside of the Quarterback. Their defense has been poor, and the Cardinals style of play should pose a problem if they get going on the ground

Bucs Falcons Over 46

The Falcons got torched last week and the Bucs are on short rest after getting steamrolled by Baltimore. Both teams should have an edge to them and our model has 69 projected points in this game.

College Picks Vibes only

Last week we went 1-3 again but hit the Dog of the Week to put us even.

Totals for the year

15-14 overall

4-3 Dog of the week

Boston College +7.5 vs Virginia Tech TONIGHT

BC had a chance after a terrible start to the game but ultimately got blown out.

Clemson -20.5 vs Virginia

Needed one more touchdown

Michigan Illinois under 44.5

Michigan is so bad. Easy winner

Texas A&M -15.5 over Mississippi St

Only a 10 point win for the Aggies. Yuck.

Dog of the week

Old Dominion over Texas State

THE DOGS ARE BARKING ONCE AGAIN

The Picks for this week

Boise State -3.5 @ UNLV

I’ve been looking for reason to root for Ashton Jeanty in hopes he will save the Dallas Cowboys. Friday night late night game is a good shot at that.

Ohio State -25.5 vs Nebraska

OSU off a bye vs a weak team. I’m in.

Ole Miss -20.5 over Oklahoma

Back on the Rebels this week. OU has serious issues on offense and not many teams can hold down Ole Miss even with a good defense. I like a 38-10 final here.

Virginia Tech -10.5 vs Georgia Tech

The Hokies are hot, I like a noon game for them here with 2 days extra rest.

Dog of the Week

Navy +390 vs Notre Dame. The Midshipman are hot, and this is their biggest game of the year until they play Army. Let’s see how real they are.