Welcome back, we had a nice little weekend with our first batch of data, overall the system performed slightly above .500. With an excellent 9-4 in Totals, and weaker 5-7 showings for the GENEVA Engine. We expect that to continue to improve as we gather more data week to week.

Our 5 official picks went 2-3, and both Joe Flacco and Josh Allen had chances to flip it to a 4-1 week. Those are the breaks.

We did however have a few scores that were pretty close to exact scores. Green Bay and LA was a 24-19 final, we had 26-21.

Here’s the full GENEVA Prediction Panel brought to you by labofdata.com 

This week we are projecting out 10 opportunities where our model predicts an outcome that does not agree with public money, they are as follows

ML

Green Bay

Washington

Spread

Washington +6.5

New England +7

Cleveland +9.5

Giants +3.5

Jets +2.5

Totals

BAL-Wash Over 51.5 (61)

PHI-CLE Under 42.5 (40)

DAL-DET Under 52.5 (45)

My favorites out of this bunch will serve as our official picks

Baltimore Washington over 51.5

I think Washington will put up a fight in this game. Their defense has benefitted from some less than stellar offenses and aren’t as good as they have played. Conversely, the Ravens pass defense is poor and aligns with the fact that Washington has faced off against the 3rd easiest passing defense schedule to date. If Baltimore commits to the run they should win this game, but the Commanders should be able to score enough to scare the Ravens into keeping up, and I think these QB’s will put on a show. This is the only Under the public money is betting on, which creates a nice opportunity as the model projects 61 total points.

Washington +6.5

Big dogs have performed at an excellent rate this year, Dan Quinn will do enough to keep this game tight, which aligns with our over pick. Count this as my hope I’m wrong pick of the week.

Under 42.5 Cleveland vs Philly

I think the Eagles win this game, the spread is large and that usually leads to an under. 42.5 is one of those lines that they are begging you to bet the over and just under 60% of the public money lives there. I don’t think Cleveland will be able to put up enough points to hold their end, and I like the 22-19 projected total the system has.

Houston-Green Bay ML Parlay -109.

The system has both these games projected as closer than expected, but I like the spot for both teams, Houston faces a rookie QB and thier pass rush is licking their chops looking at the NE O-Line. Expect a lot of running from New England, and Stroud has proven no defense is too fierce for him.

Arizona is coming off a high point, Green Bay should be continuing to improve with Love back. I like this spot for the Packers with Arizona going up to Green Bay.

Vibes prop of the week

Jake Ferguson Anytime TD +230

. I will be in the house and this will be my only bet in the game. The Cowboys torched the Lions with CeeDee Lamb in their last matchup, and Detroit will be hammering him with brackets and double coverage. Ferguson is still looking for his first score of the year and +230 is juicy for the Cowboys second best passing weapon.

Thursday Night Parlay.

Deebo Samuel kills the Seahawks

Here’s what we’re going with

+950

Deebo Anytime TD

DK Anytime

Deebo 70+ yards receiving

Deebo over 4.5 catches

College Picks Vibes only

2-2 last week and a loss for our Dog of the Week with Rutgers.

On the season we are 13-8 and 3-2 on the Dog of the Week.

Washington and Virginia Tech were easy wins, Georgia started out slow and the AF-Navy game was admittedly a dumb pick.

I mean you know where we’re starting. It’s the game of the week. #2 vs #3

Ohio State -3.5 vs Oregon.

This is a personal bias vibe pick. Did it open at -1. yes. Is there 94% of the money on OSU? Yes. Do I care because OSU is going to blast the Ducks into space? NO.

Texas -14.5 vs Oklahoma

60% of the money is on Oklahoma. Texas is awesome and Ewers should be ready to roll off the bye. I think the Longhorns win by 21+. Oklahoma can’t score with Texas and despite their solid defense. Texas is just too good.

Ole Miss -3 at LSU

We forgot to bet Ole Miss last week and that was a mistake. Ole Miss is going to light it up in Death Valley.

Ole Miss LSU over 62.5

College games with lines over 60 don’t usually hit. But this is the vibes only pick section. LSU games always go over. Ole Miss scores at ridiculous paces. LSU’s defense is terrible. Lane wants to win and win by a lot. Let it ride.

Dog of the Week

Lets get real weird.

Florida Atlantic +205

I know nothing about this game but 96% of the money is on North Texas. Let’s get to 4-2.

Thanks for reading, see you on Tuesday.