Thursday Picks

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Last week the college Tullyriders could do no wrong with a 4-0 week, with the NFL faltering at 2-2. But have no fear. It’s data week.

I’ve been holding off for weeks from presenting our NFL picks with anything other than vibes. Now that we have 4 weeks of data, it’s time to hop on labofdata.com and run some forecasts.

Using LockedIn, our team compiled predictions for the week, using our GENEVA engine as well as Single Exponential Smoothing for this weeks matchups.

Here’s what we got for GENEVA

Spreads and totals are as of Wednesday AM, sorry if it has moved since we did the calculations. Miami New England and Giants Seahawks were not included in this model due to the Monday night impacts.

Here are our results using Single Exponential Smoothing

What we do next is compare, and see where on the scale our consensus between the two models fall

We have identified now several instances where the models agree on outcomes.

Moneyline

Tampa Bay

Chicago

Indy

Buffalo

Washington

Denver

San Francisco

Green Bay

Pittsburgh

Spread

Tampa Bay

Indy

Buffalo

Washington

Green Bay

Pittsburgh

New Orleans

Those will be the “Data Picks” for this week, and I will provide the results next week for the whole board.

What we are going to do weekly is select up to 5 picks a week that we will count as our official picks for the season. These picks will typically be consensus picks where the public money is against our pick or pretty close to even.

Here’s what we got for Week 5

Colts ML

The Jaguars just aren’t very good and the Colts have a very solid defense. Expect a low scoring yuck fest from these two teams, the data likes the Colts and the under, but we are going to stick with the Colts getting the win.

Bills Moneyline

The Public is buying into the Bills downfall but we attribute that win to it all coming together for the Ravens last week. Houston is very good but Josh Allen will make the difference in this game.

BUF/HOU Under 47.5

Following up on this, we have a computer pick with GENEVA at 46, and SES at 42, both falling below the 47.5 the line has crawled up to in the last few days.

San Francisco -7

GENEVA loves the 49ers and has projected a 12 point victory for the home team against Arizona coming off a tough outing, a quick start for San Fran could create some serious panic as Arizona got steamrolled last week by a lesser rushing attack and lesser OL with Washington

Green Bay -3

Two coaches who know each other well, but Jordan Love should be back to himself this week, Green Bay should be jolted awake after their tough start last week and I liked how they turned it on in the second half on offense, but particuarly on defense with how they turned up the heat on Sam Darnold.

To build your own models, systems, and forecast results, sign up for LockedIN here at labofdata.com

College Football

Alright enough data, back to vibes. We are 11-6 on the season in college and back with a dog of the week after a week off.

Georgia -23.5 vs Auburn

Ugly first half from Georgia, but I love this spot for the Dogs, coming off a loss against a top team, getting another shot at a rival at home with an inexperienced QB. Georgia’s offense learned a lot about themselves last week and I imagine this wasn’t a particularly loose week of practice for the Dogs. 90% of public money is on Auburn to cover according to actionnetwork.com

Washington -2.5 vs Michigan

You hate it. I get it. Ranked teams as dogs are the books begging for you to take Michigan with the + sign. But what if Michigan is just another B1G team? If it was Wisconsin or Minnesota with Michigan’s resume you’re not even thinking about picking against Washington. 84% of the money is on Michigan.

Virginia Tech -7.5 vs Stanford

This line has moved since open to 7.5 from 6.5. I like the Hokies coming off a 9 day rest and a great fight with Miami last Thursday. Stanford has played relatively well, but there should be a good Hokie crowd in Palo Alto and I really like the Tech offense in this one.

Navy vs Air Force under 37

Service Academy game unders, thats it. Just bet it and forget it.

DOG OF THE WEEK

Big week for me here. 3-1 is great, but 4-1 is a hell of a lot better than 3-2. Gotta win this one.

Let’s go to the B1G. Give me Rutgers in an ugly one at Nebraska. Nebraska has been a victim of the Dog of the Week before, and I like Greg Schiano scheming up some chaos on the road in Lincoln.